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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

A cynical view of central bank money-speak

References to money trends in Fed and Bank of England reports represent tokenism, with no implications for policy. Continue reading
This entry was posted on July 22, 2026.
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Japan’s QT disaster

The BoJ’s bond disposals are crushing money growth, threatening a return to deflation. Continue reading
This entry was posted on July 9, 2026.
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

The monetary backdrop for markets has become less favourable, while a pick-up in US money growth suggests rising medium-term inflation risks. Continue reading
This entry was posted on July 2, 2026.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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