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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

US money update: mixed signals

US narrow money is growing slowly, casting doubt on expectations of economic strength. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 28, 2026.
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Weaker monetary news

Early numbers suggest that global six-month real narrow money momentum fell back sharply in December. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 20, 2026.
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US broad money update: low household cash ratio

The share of money holdings in household financial wealth is near the bottom of its range since the mid-2000s, with equity exposure at a post-WW2 record. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 16, 2026.
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

Global money trends appear modestly supportive but cyclical clouds are gathering. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 7, 2026.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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