G7 money trends promising 2023-24 inflation relief

March CPI numbers globally have mostly surprised on the upside (again) but monetary trends and other considerations continue to suggest significant relief in 2023-24. G7 annual CPI inflation rose to 6.8%* in March, the fastest since 1982. A post in September 2020 presented a “monetarist” forecast that G7 inflation would average 4-5% pa in 2021-22, i.e. between […] Continue reading

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

The monetary indicators followed here continue to give a negative signal for the global economy and risk assets. The indicators have been depressed by an inflation squeeze on real money balances and this drag is probably peaking. Any relief, however, may be offset by a further slowdown in nominal money growth due to over-aggressive withdrawal […] Continue reading