Chinese money and credit numbers for December suggest that policy stimulus is becoming effective, warranting an upgraded assessment of economic prospects. Continue reading
Global money growth remains subdued, support from a previous monetary overhang has ended, while the stockbuilding cycle is approaching a less favourable phase for risk assets. Continue reading
Author
Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.
Forecasting Process
Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.