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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Fed tapering: why the 2013-14 playbook could be misleading

US Treasury yields have risen sharply since Fed Chair Powell’s signal last week of a likely tapering decision at the November or December FOMC meeting. Continue reading
This entry was posted on September 29, 2021.
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Global earnings momentum fading before Evergrande

US Treasury yields have risen sharply since Fed Chair Powell’s signal last week of a likely tapering decision at the November or December FOMC meeting. Continue reading
This entry was posted on September 22, 2021.
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Is UK money growth normalising?

An FTarticle lists “Five big questions facing the Bank of England over rising inflation”. The most important one is missing: will broad money growth return to its pre-covid pace? Continue reading
This entry was posted on September 17, 2021.
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No recovery in global money growth in August

Partial data indicate that global six-month real narrow money growth was little changed in August, following July’s fall to a 22-month low. Continue reading
This entry was posted on September 14, 2021.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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