Is US labour market resilience about to crumble?

Revised numbers confirm that US GDP fell by 0.6% (1.1% annualised) between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022*. Hours worked in the private sector economy, meanwhile, climbed 1.1% (2.2% annualised) over the same period. What explains this disconnect and how long can it continue?  The ”explanation” here is that economy-wide productivity was pushed far above trend […] Continue reading

Global monetary update: no respite

Global six-month real narrow money momentum, the key economic leading indicator in the forecasting approach employed here, is estimated to have moved sideways in deep negative territory in August* – see chart 1. Allowing for an average nine-month lead, the suggestion is that an incipient global recession will extend through Q2 2023, at least.  Chart […] Continue reading

Ignore central bank hysteria: inflation risks are fading fast

Global six-month consumer price inflation peaked in June and fell further in August, reflecting pass-through of lower oil prices and a small decline in core momentum. Current commodity prices suggest a sizeable further drop into Q4 – see chart 1*.  Chart 1 Annual as well as six-month CPI inflation probably peaked in June, with the […] Continue reading

Will Truss largesse reverse dangerously weak UK money trends?

UK monetary trends continue to argue against Bank of England policy tightening.  Annual growth of non-financial M4 – comprising money holdings of households and private non-financial firms – was 3.7% in July, below a 4.4% average in the five years preceding the pandemic. The aggregate expanded at an annualised rate of only 2.0% in the […] Continue reading