Global money update: weak signal with US still diverging
Money growth is recovering disappointingly slowly in Europe and has weakened in Japan, while a recent US pick-up may fade post election. Continue reading
UK rates: the case for 50
The MPC’s slowness to cut rates risks aggravating a recent loss of economic momentum and prolonging an inflation undershoot. Continue reading
Chinese money growth recovery under way
September money numbers and recent policy announcements support optimism about monetary prospects but the scale of acceleration is uncertain. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Cycle analysis suggests economic strength in H2 2025 / 2026 but confirmation is required from a pick-up in money growth. Continue reading
Will the UK join the double dip?
Monetary trends suggest that UK economic performance will converge down to a weak Eurozone. Continue reading