Unpleasant UK fiscal arithmetic
The November Budget needs to deliver an early return to a primary surplus to calm fears of a fiscal doom loop. Continue reading
A short Fed easing window?
A simple model suggests that the window for rate cuts will close in early 2026 if the economy tracks the median FOMC forecast. Continue reading
UK underlying inflation has slowed
A measure of UK annual core CPI inflation excluding direct policy effects has fallen by 0.5 pp over the past year. Continue reading
Chinese money update: still supportive
The Chinese economy has slowed sharply but money trends are giving a modestly reassuring signal. Continue reading
More signs of Eurozone softening
Other indicators support the monetary forecast of a loss of economic momentum. Continue reading