Liquidity improvement delayed
The two measures of global “excess” money tracked here remain negative, arguing for a cautious view of equity market prospects. Continue reading
US / UK core prices slowing on “monetarist” schedule
US and UK CPI data this week elicited opposite market reactions but core momentum has recently slowed notably in both cases, consistent with a moderation in money growth rates two years earlier. Continue reading
No QE boost to Japanese money growth
Japanese monetary trends continue to argue that current inflation is “transitory” and there is no case for BoJ policy tightening. Continue reading
Possible seasonality shift adding to US jobs uncertainty
The unusually high level of job openings may be affecting the seasonality of US labour market data. An accurate read on the non-seasonal employment trend may not be possible until the spring. Continue reading
Echoes of 2008 in UK monetary / labour market data
The consensus is gloomy about UK economic prospects but is it gloomy enough? The current debate has echoes of mid-2008. Continue reading