Global “double dip” on track
The assessment here remains that the global economy has entered a “double dip” currently focused on manufacturing but likely to extend to services / labour markets. Continue reading
Chinese monetary update: crunch time
Chinese monetary trends are alarmingly weak even allowing for a recent regulatory distortion, arguing for urgent policy action. Continue reading
Services to the rescue?
A sharp fall in the global manufacturing PMI new orders index in July confirms renewed industrial weakness. The companion services survey, however, reported an uptick in the new business component, which is close to its post-GFC average. Continue reading
OECD US leading indicator signalling weaker outlook
A post in June suggested that a recovery in the OECD’s US composite leading indicator was ending. A calculation based on the latest input data confirms a reversal lower. The historical performance of the OECD indicator compares favourably with the Conference Board leading index Continue reading
Unfavourable PMI precedents
Manufacturing PMI results for July support the forecast of a global “double dip” into early 2025.
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index plunged by 1.9 points from June to 48.8, a seven-month low. Continue reading
The BoJ’s new Keynesian gamble – third time unlucky?
Will the Bank of Japan’s latest attempt to exit ZIRP prove any more successful than its previous two efforts, in 2000 and 2006? The monetary backdrop is no more promising. The six-month rate of change of broad money M3 was 0.5% annualised in June compared with 1.3% and -1.1% respectively before the August 2000 and July 2006 rate hikes. Continue reading