US money update: balance of payments drag US money growth is slowing, suggesting less support for the economy and improving prospects for rate cuts. Continue reading
UK inflation: underlying softening UK April inflation numbers were much less bad than reported. Continue reading
Why is the UK an employment outlier? UK monetary trends have been arguing for faster MPC easing. Labour market news is now reinforcing the message. Continue reading
Inflation leading indicators still benign Three indicators that signalled the 2021-22 global inflation spike and reversal continue to suggest a favourable outlook. Continue reading
Are US monetary conditions about to tighten? “Treasury QE” has supported US broad money growth but a lifting of the debt ceiling promises a reckoning. Continue reading