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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

US money update: balance of payments drag

US money growth is slowing, suggesting less support for the economy and improving prospects for rate cuts. Continue reading
This entry was posted on May 30, 2025.
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UK inflation: underlying softening

UK April inflation numbers were much less bad than reported. Continue reading
This entry was posted on May 28, 2025.
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Why is the UK an employment outlier?

UK monetary trends have been arguing for faster MPC easing. Labour market news is now reinforcing the message. Continue reading
This entry was posted on May 16, 2025.
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Inflation leading indicators still benign

Three indicators that signalled the 2021-22 global inflation spike and reversal continue to suggest a favourable outlook. Continue reading
This entry was posted on May 9, 2025.
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Are US monetary conditions about to tighten?

“Treasury QE” has supported US broad money growth but a lifting of the debt ceiling promises a reckoning. Continue reading
This entry was posted on May 1, 2025.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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