Don’t exaggerate UK labour market “strength”
The UK labour market has recovered impressively but isn’t at risk of “overheating”, as claimed by economists quoted in write-ups of this week’s data. Continue reading
Has the Fed called the top in growth (again)?
Recent US economic news has surprised negatively when properly weighted for significance. The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of the contribution of final sales to Q4 annualised GDP growth has been slashed from 8.1 percentage points at the start of December to just 2.0 pp currently. Continue reading
Equity rotation consistent with liquidity squeeze
The violent rotation in equity markets since the start of the year appears to have been driven by a tightening of liquidity conditions hitting high-flying growth stocks, rather than signalling increased economic optimism and a resumption of the late 2020 / early 2021 “reflation trade”. Continue reading