A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
The monetary backdrop for markets has become less favourable, while a pick-up in US money growth suggests rising medium-term inflation risks. Continue reading
Are equities stalling?
The “excess” money backdrop for markets has become less favourable, with mixed prospects for H2. Continue reading
More slowdown signals
OECD leading indicator data and survey evidence on stocks support the forecast of a H2 loss of industrial momentum. Continue reading
Alarming Eurozone / UK money data
April money numbers signal rising recession risk and suggest that policy-makers should be considering easing not tightening. Continue reading
Is earnings momentum peaking?
An expected fall in global manufacturing PMI new orders suggests a moderation, at least, in current earnings strength. Continue reading
Policy perversity
The policy biases of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are opposite to those warranted by economic / monetary conditions. Continue reading
Global money update: inflation squeeze
Global six-month real narrow money growth is slowing from a January-February peak, suggesting a loss of economic momentum during H2. Continue reading
Rising Eurozone recession risk
The April ECB bank lending survey signals an “endogenous” tightening of monetary conditions. Continue reading
Semis and the stockbuilding cycle
A surge in prices of electronic components is another indication of a cycle peak. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global monetary trends were supportive pre-shock but an inflation squeeze on real growth is now likely, reinforcing a cautionary message from cycle analysis. Continue reading