Policy perversity
The policy biases of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are opposite to those warranted by economic / monetary conditions. Continue reading
Global money update: inflation squeeze
Global six-month real narrow money growth is slowing from a January-February peak, suggesting a loss of economic momentum during H2. Continue reading
Rising Eurozone recession risk
The April ECB bank lending survey signals an “endogenous” tightening of monetary conditions. Continue reading
Semis and the stockbuilding cycle
A surge in prices of electronic components is another indication of a cycle peak. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global monetary trends were supportive pre-shock but an inflation squeeze on real growth is now likely, reinforcing a cautionary message from cycle analysis. Continue reading
Global money update: US rebound
Monetary trends suggest that US economic prospects were improving relative to the Eurozone before the Gulf War III energy shock. Continue reading
UK housing crash?
The Gulf War III mortgage rate shock may be the trigger for the long-term housing cycle to enter its “bust” phase. Continue reading
Another central bank policy mistake?
Hawkish officials are fighting the last war, fearing a repeat of the 2022 inflation upsurge despite much weaker money growth. Continue reading
Cyclical vulnerability
Energy supply disruption is occurring with key economic cycles in time windows for weakness. Continue reading
Misplaced ISM optimism
A rise in the US ISM manufacturing new orders index was expected to be short-lived even before the outbreak of Gulf War III. Continue reading