Another central bank policy mistake?
Hawkish officials are fighting the last war, fearing a repeat of the 2022 inflation upsurge despite much weaker money growth. Continue reading
Cyclical vulnerability
Energy supply disruption is occurring with key economic cycles in time windows for weakness. Continue reading
Misplaced ISM optimism
A rise in the US ISM manufacturing new orders index was expected to be short-lived even before the outbreak of Gulf War III. Continue reading
Why has US bank loan growth surged?
A recent pick-up in commercial bank loan growth is unlikely to be a positive signal for economic prospects. Continue reading
Surprising January monetary news
Global six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have rebounded from a sharp December fall to reach a new high in January. Continue reading
Has the Fed’s easing window closed?
The historical Fed would be shifting to a tightening bias in response to recent economic news. Continue reading
US deposit distortion confirmed
The Fed’s Public Affairs office has confirmed that a large rise in demand deposits in late 2025 reflected a reporting change. Continue reading
Monetary tremors
Recent market turbulence could reflect an adverse shift in “excess” money conditions. Continue reading
Fade the manufacturing bounce
An expected PMI pick-up is under way but money trends suggest another relapse from Q2. Continue reading
Eurozone / UK money update: UK relative recovery
Eurozone and UK money trends have shown disappointingly small responses to policy easing. Continue reading