Cycle update: expected 2027 weakness crystallising
The short-term stockbuilding cycle is rolling over with the long-term housing cycle on track to accelerate into a 2027-28 low. Continue reading
Global money update: cooler despite US
Money trends suggest that global economic momentum is peaking in Q3, with downside risk focused on Europe and Japan. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: French weakness
Monetary trends continue to suggest coming economic disappointment. Continue reading
US money update: more strength
Monetary trends continue to suggest too-loose policy. Continue reading
Japanese money update: further weakness
Rising QT and f/x intervention are intensifying a monetary squeeze. Continue reading
More UK stop-go
Money trends signalled better H1 economic growth but now suggest renewed weakness. Continue reading
Global money update: US lift
US monetary acceleration has tempered an earlier signal of a H2 global economic slowdown. Continue reading
US money update: further acceleration
Monetary buoyancy puts Fed Chair Warsh in a bind. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: signal still downbeat
Monetary trends suggest that recent PMI improvement will prove temporary. Continue reading
A cynical view of central bank money-speak
References to money trends in Fed and Bank of England reports represent tokenism, with no implications for policy. Continue reading