US deposit distortion confirmed
The Fed’s Public Affairs office has confirmed that a large rise in demand deposits in late 2025 reflected a reporting change. Continue reading
Monetary tremors
Recent market turbulence could reflect an adverse shift in “excess” money conditions. Continue reading
Fade the manufacturing bounce
An expected PMI pick-up is under way but money trends suggest another relapse from Q2. Continue reading
Eurozone / UK money update: UK relative recovery
Eurozone and UK money trends have shown disappointingly small responses to policy easing. Continue reading
US money update: mixed signals
US narrow money is growing slowly, casting doubt on expectations of economic strength. Continue reading
Weaker monetary news
Early numbers suggest that global six-month real narrow money momentum fell back sharply in December. Continue reading
US broad money update: low household cash ratio
The share of money holdings in household financial wealth is near the bottom of its range since the mid-2000s, with equity exposure at a post-WW2 record. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global money trends appear modestly supportive but cyclical clouds are gathering. Continue reading
US money update: suspect deposit data
A sharp rise in US demand deposits in November probably reflects a statistical distortion, with broader money trends stable. Continue reading
UK inflation: another favourable surprise
November CPI numbers support “monetarist” optimism, with an undershoot now on the horizon. Continue reading