This is the first of a series of short posts focusing on whether incoming economic news supports or contradicts the forecast of a global “hard landing” suggested by monetary trends. Flash results suggest that the global composite PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of demand momentum – fell for a fourth month in September, consistent with the monetary signal of a slide into early 2024, at least. Continue reading

Global six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have broken to a new low in August, reinforcing pessimism here about economic prospects and casting strong doubt on now widely-held “soft landing” hopes. Real money momentum bottomed in July 2022, recovered during H2 but suffered a relapse in early 2023, retesting the 2022 low in April. Continue reading

A “double dip” in the global economy suggested by monetary trends appears to be playing out, with weakness likely to intensify into late 2023. The global composite PMI new orders index – a timely coincident indicator – continued its decline from a May peak last month. Continue reading