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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Global industrial momentum peaking on schedule

The US policy shock calls into question the previous baseline scenario of modest and temporary deceleration. Continue reading
This entry was posted on March 4, 2025.
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Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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