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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

More slowdown signals

OECD leading indicator data and survey evidence on stocks support the forecast of a H2 loss of industrial momentum. Continue reading
This entry was posted on June 9, 2026.
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Alarming Eurozone / UK money data

April money numbers signal rising recession risk and suggest that policy-makers should be considering easing not tightening. Continue reading
This entry was posted on June 2, 2026.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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