Sectoral numbers show that recent US money growth has been focused on the household and financial sectors, with business holdings falling. Continue reading
Monthly UK money growth was boosted by households scrambling to dispose of assets ahead of the Budget, with a reversal likely and corporate liquidity trends worryingly weak. Continue reading
November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions. Continue reading
Author
Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.
Forecasting Process
Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.