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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Chinese money update: slow recovery

Chinese money trends are normalising after weakness, suggesting modest economic improvement. Continue reading
This entry was posted on December 18, 2024.
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Weaker US business money trends

Sectoral numbers show that recent US money growth has been focused on the household and financial sectors, with business holdings falling. Continue reading
This entry was posted on December 13, 2024.
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UK money update: corporate liquidity squeeze

Monthly UK money growth was boosted by households scrambling to dispose of assets ahead of the Budget, with a reversal likely and corporate liquidity trends worryingly weak. Continue reading
This entry was posted on December 10, 2024.
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Eurozone inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track

Eurozone services price momentum is “unsticking” as expected, supporting the forecast of sub-2% 2025 inflation. Continue reading
This entry was posted on December 4, 2024.
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Global industrial momentum reviving on schedule

November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions. Continue reading
This entry was posted on December 4, 2024.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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