UK inflation forecast update: still on track for 3%+
A post in November presented a “monetarist” forecast that CPI inflation would rise to more than 3% by late 2021. This forecast appears on track. Continue reading
Equity market “internals” consistent with PMI peak
The forecast here remains that global industrial momentum, as measured by the manufacturing PMI new orders index, is at or close to a peak, with a multi-month decline in prospect. Continue reading
Chinese money growth still sliding – PBoC policy shift ahead?
Chinese money trends continue to give a negative message for economic prospects. The PBoC could be moving towards easing policy despite a surge in producer price inflation. Continue reading