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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Fade the manufacturing bounce

An expected PMI pick-up is under way but money trends suggest another relapse from Q2. Continue reading
This entry was posted on February 3, 2026.
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Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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