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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Cyclical vulnerability

Energy supply disruption is occurring with key economic cycles in time windows for weakness. Continue reading
This entry was posted on March 13, 2026.
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Misplaced ISM optimism

A rise in the US ISM manufacturing new orders index was expected to be short-lived even before the outbreak of Gulf War III. Continue reading
This entry was posted on March 11, 2026.
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Why has US bank loan growth surged?

A recent pick-up in commercial bank loan growth is unlikely to be a positive signal for economic prospects. Continue reading
This entry was posted on March 4, 2026.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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