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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

What explains US consumer exceptionalism?

US consumers have trounced the Europeans – again. US personal consumption rose by 9.7% between Q4 2019 and Q3 2023 versus a 0.5% increase in the Eurozone and a 1.6% fall in the UK. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 23, 2024.
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Chinese money trends signalling still-worsening prospects

China’s economic woes partly reflect restrictive monetary policy. The latest money numbers suggest still-deteriorating prospects and urgent need for a policy reversal. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 18, 2024.
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

The money and cycles forecasting approach suggested that global inflation would fall rapidly during 2023 but at the expense of significant economic weakness. The inflation forecast played out but activity proved more resilient than expected. Continue reading
This entry was posted on January 5, 2024.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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