A promising recovery in global money growth may be insufficient to offset lagged effects of prior tightness and the US trade policy shock. Continue reading
Author
Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.
Forecasting Process
Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.