US money update: suspect deposit data
A sharp rise in US demand deposits in November probably reflects a statistical distortion, with broader money trends stable. Continue reading
UK inflation: another favourable surprise
November CPI numbers support “monetarist” optimism, with an undershoot now on the horizon. Continue reading
Defiant Fed forecasts
The Fed’s economic forecasts continue to suggest that the window for easing will close in early 2026, based on a model of its historical behaviour. Continue reading
Slowdown signals
Global manufacturing PMI new orders weakened on schedule but money trends currently suggest a limited decline. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: disappointing response
Monetary trends suggest that interest rates remain above a “neutral” level. Continue reading