US profits boosted by one-offs
National accounts profits numbers for Q2 released last week mirror recent strength in company earnings reports. Continue reading
Eurozone slowdown on track, is real money growth bottoming?
Eurozone monetary trends have been suggesting an economic slowdown through end-2021. A recent moderation of consumer price momentum, however, has stabilised six-month real narrow money growth, hinting at a bottoming out of business surveys and other coincident indicators in early 2022. Continue reading
Glimmers of hope in Chinese monetary details
Detailed monetary data for July released yesterday suggest that recent policy easing is beginning to support money growth, in turn hinting at a recovery in economic momentum from end-2021. Continue reading
Why has the UK RPI / CPI inflation gap surged?
The fall in UK CPI inflation in July reported this week will be of limited comfort to policy-makers – a decline had been expected because of a large base effect and will be more than reversed in August Continue reading
Disappointing July money data
The assessment here remains that the global manufacturing PMI new orders index peaked in May and will fall through H2 2021, reflecting a decline in global six-month real narrow money growth from July 2020 through May. Continue reading
Global money trends at critical juncture
The economic / market view here remains cautious based on 1) an expected slowdown in global industrial momentum through H2 (already apparent in Chinese data) and 2) recent less favourable “excess” money conditions. Continue reading