Magical thinking on tariffs
The US may suffer greater economic damage from tariff hikes than China / the EU. Continue reading
Weaker US / Eurozone money data
January money numbers suggest that US policy chaos is damaging economic prospects. Continue reading
Chinese stocks climb “wall of worry”
Chinese money growth has normalised while the MSCI China index remains on a steep valuation discount despite recent outperformance. Continue reading
UK inflation: it’s getting complicated
The Bank of England expects rises in regulated prices and taxes to push headline CPI inflation up to 3.5% by June but the forecast likely underestimates disinflationary pressure from monetary weakness. Continue reading
Global industrial revival on track but obstacles ahead
Manufacturing surveys may reach a short-term peak this spring, with the extent of any retracement partly depending on trade policy developments. Continue reading