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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Magical thinking on tariffs

The US may suffer greater economic damage from tariff hikes than China / the EU. Continue reading
This entry was posted on February 28, 2025.
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Weaker US / Eurozone money data

January money numbers suggest that US policy chaos is damaging economic prospects. Continue reading
This entry was posted on February 27, 2025.
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Chinese stocks climb “wall of worry”

Chinese money growth has normalised while the MSCI China index remains on a steep valuation discount despite recent outperformance. Continue reading
This entry was posted on February 19, 2025.
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UK inflation: it’s getting complicated

The Bank of England expects rises in regulated prices and taxes to push headline CPI inflation up to 3.5% by June but the forecast likely underestimates disinflationary pressure from monetary weakness. Continue reading
This entry was posted on February 13, 2025.
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Global industrial revival on track but obstacles ahead

Manufacturing surveys may reach a short-term peak this spring, with the extent of any retracement partly depending on trade policy developments. Continue reading
This entry was posted on February 5, 2025.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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