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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Global money update: EM strength

Global money trends suggest that major economic weakness will be deferred until later in 2026. Continue reading
This entry was posted on November 27, 2025.
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UK inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track

Inflation is realigning with lagged money trends as policy distortions fade. Continue reading
This entry was posted on November 19, 2025.
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Chinese money update: lacklustre outlook

October money / credit numbers were mixed, suggesting a continuation of sluggish economic growth. Continue reading
This entry was posted on November 14, 2025.
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Manufacturing roll-over?

The forecast of an inflection weaker in global manufacturing PMI new orders is supported by the “internals” of the latest survey. Continue reading
This entry was posted on November 6, 2025.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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