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Italy stars in ECB monetary horror show

Gas price relief and Chinese reopening have tempered pessimism about Eurozone economic prospects, contributing to a Q4 rally in equities. Monetary trends, by contrast, suggest a worsening outlook due to the ECB’s scorched earth policy tightening. The preferred narrow money measure here – non-financial M1 – contracted for a third straight month in November. The […] Continue reading

Has the Fed been misled by faulty payrolls data?

US non-farm payrolls have risen by an average of 337,000 per month in the eight months since the Fed started hiking rates in March. The household survey measure of employment was essentially flat over this period. Continue reading

BoJ / PBoC policy shifts worrying for global monetary prospects

The BoJ’s decision to widen the fluctuation band of the 10-year JGB yield around the zero target follows an apparent withdrawal of monetary policy support by the PBoC in recent weeks. Continue reading

UK labour market report mixed but recession-consistent

UK payrolled employment rose solidly again in November, while pay growth numbers for October surprised to the upside. It has been suggested that this news reinforces the case for a Bank rate hike of at least 50 bp this week. Continue reading

Global money trends inconsistent with recovery hopes

The global manufacturing PMI new orders index was little changed in November, the six-month rate of change of the OECD’s G7 leading indicator has hooked up and cyclical sectors have been outperforming defensive sectors in the recent equity market rally. Do these developments signal a bottoming of global economic momentum and a prospective H1 2023 […] Continue reading

Italy stars in ECB monetary horror show

Has the Fed been misled by faulty payrolls data?

BoJ / PBoC policy shifts worrying for global monetary prospects

UK labour market report mixed but recession-consistent

Global money trends inconsistent with recovery hopes

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