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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Why has UK money growth slumped?

Monetary weakness may partly reflect temporary factors but also signals an overrestrictive policy stance. Continue reading
This entry was posted on July 11, 2025.
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

Global six-month real narrow money momentum fell sharply between March and May, suggesting economic weakness from late 2025. Continue reading
This entry was posted on July 9, 2025.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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