Money Moves Markets

Moderate Chinese recovery won’t offset weakness elsewhere

The Chinese economy has bounced back since reopening but the pick-up has arguably been underwhelming. GDP grew at a 9.1% annualised rate in Q1, according to official data, but this partly represents payback for a weak Q4. Continue reading

Global supply glut signalling goods deflation

The “monetarist” forecast is that G7 inflation rates will fall dramatically into 2024, mirroring a collapse in nominal money growth in 2021-22. Continue reading

Recession warning from US vacancies

US February job openings were 17% below their March 2022 peak. Historically, a decline of this magnitude in vacancies – job openings or, for earlier years, help-wanted advertising – was always associated with a payrolls recession. Continue reading

Global monetary relapse ominous for H2 prospects

Partial information indicates that global (i.e. G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum fell for a third month in March, possibly breaching a low reached in June 2022. This increases confidence that a recent recovery in PMIs will reverse into H2. Continue reading

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

Global economic sentiment has improved on the back of China’s reopening and a collapse in the European gas price but monetary indicators continue to signal a negative outlook. Continue reading

Moderate Chinese recovery won’t offset weakness elsewhere

Global supply glut signalling goods deflation

Recession warning from US vacancies

Global monetary relapse ominous for H2 prospects

A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets

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