US core consumer price momentum is likely to slow sharply in early 2022 but monetary trends appear inconsistent with inflation returning to its pre-pandemic level. Continue reading

The expectation here has been that monetary policy easing since Q2 would result in a recovery in Chinese money growth into end-2021, in turn presaging better economic performance in 2022. Continue reading

The global manufacturing PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of industrial demand momentum – eased to a 15-month low in November, continuing its decline from a May peak that was signalled by a July 2020 top in six-month real narrow money growth. Continue reading

The consensus expects US consumer spending to continue to grow solidly despite the current inflation squeeze on real wages and associated weakness in sentiment / confidence – the average forecast is for a rise of 3.6% in 2022, according to Consensus Economics Inc. Continue reading