Will industrial commodity prices fall in 2022?
A post in August 2020 suggested that industrial commodity prices were about to surge. Continue reading
Still no recovery in global real money growth
Investors appear to be in more optimistic mood about economic prospects, judging from recent relative strength of equities versus bonds and cyclical versus defensive sectors. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets – October 2021
Global industrial output has flatlined since early 2021, reflecting supply disruptions but also a loss of demand momentum. Output may recover into 2022 as supply problems ease but money trends signal a further weakening of underlying momentum Continue reading
Fade the PMI bounce
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of industrial momentum – registered a surprise small rise in September, with weaker results for major developed economies foreshadowed in earlier flash surveys offset by recoveries in China and a number of other emerging markets Continue reading