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Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

Global money update: further slowdown

Monetary trends suggest weakening economic prospects for late 2025 / early 2026. Continue reading
This entry was posted on August 28, 2025.
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UK QT has been a costly mistake

QT has been fiscally expensive, is contributing to worrying monetary weakness and wasn’t required on operational grounds. Continue reading
This entry was posted on August 27, 2025.
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Why inflation pessimism is premature

The monetary conditions for a second inflation rise into the Kondratyev peak have yet to fall into place. Continue reading
This entry was posted on August 13, 2025.
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Is Eurozone labour market resilience about to crumble?

Weakening job openings suggest that a negative economic scenario is starting to crystallise. Continue reading
This entry was posted on August 8, 2025.
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Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

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