Global money update: slowdown on pause
Global six-month real narrow money momentum recovered for a second month in September, though remains below a March peak. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: sluggish as she goes
Monetary trends continue to cast doubt on economic optimism. Continue reading
Are global monetary “buffers” exhausted?
A modified “monetarist” approach suggests that money stocks are no longer exerting an upward pull on nominal GDP and asset prices. Continue reading
Chinese money update: steady as she goes
Chinese money trends suggest a continuation of sluggish economic growth and a supportive liquidity environment for markets. Continue reading
Monetary risks from private credit
Credit tightening in private markets may mark the end of a boom in US bank lending to shadow banks, with negative monetary implications. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Recent slower money growth is consistent with a cyclical perspective suggesting economic / market weakness in 2026-27. Continue reading
Unpleasant UK fiscal arithmetic
The November Budget needs to deliver an early return to a primary surplus to calm fears of a fiscal doom loop. Continue reading
A short Fed easing window?
A simple model suggests that the window for rate cuts will close in early 2026 if the economy tracks the median FOMC forecast. Continue reading
UK underlying inflation has slowed
A measure of UK annual core CPI inflation excluding direct policy effects has fallen by 0.5 pp over the past year. Continue reading
Chinese money update: still supportive
The Chinese economy has slowed sharply but money trends are giving a modestly reassuring signal. Continue reading