Unpleasant UK fiscal arithmetic
The November Budget needs to deliver an early return to a primary surplus to calm fears of a fiscal doom loop. Continue reading
A short Fed easing window?
A simple model suggests that the window for rate cuts will close in early 2026 if the economy tracks the median FOMC forecast. Continue reading
UK underlying inflation has slowed
A measure of UK annual core CPI inflation excluding direct policy effects has fallen by 0.5 pp over the past year. Continue reading
Chinese money update: still supportive
The Chinese economy has slowed sharply but money trends are giving a modestly reassuring signal. Continue reading
More signs of Eurozone softening
Other indicators support the monetary forecast of a loss of economic momentum. Continue reading
Global money update: further slowdown
Monetary trends suggest weakening economic prospects for late 2025 / early 2026. Continue reading
UK QT has been a costly mistake
QT has been fiscally expensive, is contributing to worrying monetary weakness and wasn’t required on operational grounds. Continue reading
Why inflation pessimism is premature
The monetary conditions for a second inflation rise into the Kondratyev peak have yet to fall into place. Continue reading
Is Eurozone labour market resilience about to crumble?
Weakening job openings suggest that a negative economic scenario is starting to crystallise. Continue reading
Global money update: US relative strength
US six-month real narrow money momentum recovered in June, in contrast to a further slowdown in the Eurozone and outright weakness in Japan / the UK. Continue reading