Inflation leading indicators still benign
Three indicators that signalled the 2021-22 global inflation spike and reversal continue to suggest a favourable outlook. Continue reading
Are US monetary conditions about to tighten?
“Treasury QE” has supported US broad money growth but a lifting of the debt ceiling promises a reckoning. Continue reading
Are Eurozone money trends inflecting weaker?
Eurozone March money numbers suggest that further ECB policy easing will be required to insulate the economy from global weakness. Continue reading
Global money update: cavalry arriving?
A rise in money growth, if sustained, could offset US tariff damage. Continue reading
Echoes of 1971
Current events are reminiscent of the same stage of the last 54-year Kondratyev cycle. Continue reading
Chinese / Japanese monetary divergence still widening
Monetary trends suggest that China’s economy is better placed to withstand tariff damage than Japan’s. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
A promising recovery in global money growth may be insufficient to offset lagged effects of prior tightness and the US trade policy shock. Continue reading
Contradictory Fed
The Fed’s economic forecasts are inconsistent with the suggestion of a 50 bp cut in rates by year-end, according to a model of its historical behaviour. Continue reading
US money supply / demand in broad balance
The economy and markets no longer enjoy support from an excess stock of money. Continue reading
UK vacancies still weakening
A fall in private sector postings pushed single-month vacancies further below the pre-pandemic level. Continue reading