Global money update: EM strength
Global money trends suggest that major economic weakness will be deferred until later in 2026. Continue reading
UK inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track
Inflation is realigning with lagged money trends as policy distortions fade. Continue reading
Chinese money update: lacklustre outlook
October money / credit numbers were mixed, suggesting a continuation of sluggish economic growth. Continue reading
Manufacturing roll-over?
The forecast of an inflection weaker in global manufacturing PMI new orders is supported by the “internals” of the latest survey. Continue reading
Global money update: slowdown on pause
Global six-month real narrow money momentum recovered for a second month in September, though remains below a March peak. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: sluggish as she goes
Monetary trends continue to cast doubt on economic optimism. Continue reading
Are global monetary “buffers” exhausted?
A modified “monetarist” approach suggests that money stocks are no longer exerting an upward pull on nominal GDP and asset prices. Continue reading
Chinese money update: steady as she goes
Chinese money trends suggest a continuation of sluggish economic growth and a supportive liquidity environment for markets. Continue reading
Monetary risks from private credit
Credit tightening in private markets may mark the end of a boom in US bank lending to shadow banks, with negative monetary implications. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Recent slower money growth is consistent with a cyclical perspective suggesting economic / market weakness in 2026-27. Continue reading