A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global money trends appear modestly supportive but cyclical clouds are gathering. Continue reading
US money update: suspect deposit data
A sharp rise in US demand deposits in November probably reflects a statistical distortion, with broader money trends stable. Continue reading
UK inflation: another favourable surprise
November CPI numbers support “monetarist” optimism, with an undershoot now on the horizon. Continue reading
Defiant Fed forecasts
The Fed’s economic forecasts continue to suggest that the window for easing will close in early 2026, based on a model of its historical behaviour. Continue reading
Slowdown signals
Global manufacturing PMI new orders weakened on schedule but money trends currently suggest a limited decline. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: disappointing response
Monetary trends suggest that interest rates remain above a “neutral” level. Continue reading
Global money update: EM strength
Global money trends suggest that major economic weakness will be deferred until later in 2026. Continue reading
UK inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track
Inflation is realigning with lagged money trends as policy distortions fade. Continue reading
Chinese money update: lacklustre outlook
October money / credit numbers were mixed, suggesting a continuation of sluggish economic growth. Continue reading
Manufacturing roll-over?
The forecast of an inflection weaker in global manufacturing PMI new orders is supported by the “internals” of the latest survey. Continue reading