A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
A promising recovery in global money growth may be insufficient to offset lagged effects of prior tightness and the US trade policy shock. Continue reading
Contradictory Fed
The Fed’s economic forecasts are inconsistent with the suggestion of a 50 bp cut in rates by year-end, according to a model of its historical behaviour. Continue reading
US money supply / demand in broad balance
The economy and markets no longer enjoy support from an excess stock of money. Continue reading
UK vacancies still weakening
A fall in private sector postings pushed single-month vacancies further below the pre-pandemic level. Continue reading
Japanese money update: still weakening
Japanese inflation isn’t back and money trends suggest a coming major undershoot. Continue reading
Market moves consistent with mid / late stockbuilding cycle
Recent outperformance of non-US equity markets may be a signal of the end of the bull market rather than a harbinger of broadening strength. Continue reading
Inflation worries are premature
Recent policy upheavals may eventually prove inflationary but near-term risks are judged to remain on the downside. Continue reading
Global industrial momentum peaking on schedule
The US policy shock calls into question the previous baseline scenario of modest and temporary deceleration. Continue reading
Magical thinking on tariffs
The US may suffer greater economic damage from tariff hikes than China / the EU. Continue reading
Weaker US / Eurozone money data
January money numbers suggest that US policy chaos is damaging economic prospects. Continue reading