A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global money growth remains subdued, a previous overhang has been removed and the stockbuilding cycle is approaching a less favourable phase for risk assets. Continue reading
Chinese money update: slow recovery
Chinese money trends are normalising after weakness, suggesting modest economic improvement. Continue reading
Weaker US business money trends
Sectoral numbers show that recent US money growth has been focused on the household and financial sectors, with business holdings falling. Continue reading
UK money update: corporate liquidity squeeze
Monthly UK money growth was boosted by households scrambling to dispose of assets ahead of the Budget, with a reversal likely and corporate liquidity trends worryingly weak. Continue reading
Eurozone inflation: “monetarist” optimism on track
Eurozone services price momentum is “unsticking” as expected, supporting the forecast of sub-2% 2025 inflation. Continue reading
Global industrial momentum reviving on schedule
November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: insufficient recovery
Eurozone money trends are improving but remain too weak to support economic optimism, while country details highlight French stress. Continue reading
US money update: positive signal fading
A pull-back in US narrow money momentum casts doubt on post-election economic optimism. Continue reading
Stockbuilding cycle turning less favourable for markets
The current stockbuilding cycle may be approaching its mid-point, which typically marks a shift from “risk-on” to a neutral or negative market environment. Continue reading
Japanese money update: downside risks rising
Japanese money trends remain ominously weak, suggesting poor economic / market prospects and a return of inflation to unacceptably low levels. Continue reading