UK QT has been a costly mistake
QT has been fiscally expensive, is contributing to worrying monetary weakness and wasn’t required on operational grounds. Continue reading
Why inflation pessimism is premature
The monetary conditions for a second inflation rise into the Kondratyev peak have yet to fall into place. Continue reading
Is Eurozone labour market resilience about to crumble?
Weakening job openings suggest that a negative economic scenario is starting to crystallise. Continue reading
Global money update: US relative strength
US six-month real narrow money momentum recovered in June, in contrast to a further slowdown in the Eurozone and outright weakness in Japan / the UK. Continue reading
UK money update: misleading M4ex
Moderate growth of the Bank of England’s M4ex measure conceals weak corporate / household money trends. Continue reading
Eurozone money update: further softening
June money numbers cast doubt on ECB President Lagarde’s assertion that policy-makers are “in a good place”. Continue reading
EM money update: India hotting up
Six-month real narrow money momentum remains stronger in the E7 than G7, with India a new source of strength and China stabilising after a pull-back. Continue reading
Why has UK money growth slumped?
Monetary weakness may partly reflect temporary factors but also signals an overrestrictive policy stance. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
Global six-month real narrow money momentum fell sharply between March and May, suggesting economic weakness from late 2025. Continue reading
Hong Kong’s US dollar overhang
Demand for US dollar deposits may be starting to wane, contributing to weakness in local rates and upward pressure on the RMB. Continue reading