Hong Kong’s US dollar overhang
Demand for US dollar deposits may be starting to wane, contributing to weakness in local rates and upward pressure on the RMB. Continue reading
Chinese money update: losing momentum
Chinese monetary trends suggest a continuation of lacklustre economic growth with negligible inflation. Continue reading
A “monetarist” perspective on UK medium-term inflation prospects
Historical lags and exchange rate appreciation suggest that disinflation has much further to run. Continue reading
Disappointing Eurozone / UK money numbers
Eurozone / UK money growth has weakened despite rate cuts, suggesting that central banks have more work to do. Continue reading
Global industrial momentum still weakening
Trade disruption and a monetary relapse suggest receding prospects for a H2 recovery in global manufacturing PMI new orders. Continue reading
Global money update: renewed weakness
A hopeful signal from an earlier monetary pick-up has fizzled. Continue reading
US money update: balance of payments drag
US money growth is slowing, suggesting less support for the economy and improving prospects for rate cuts. Continue reading
UK inflation: underlying softening
UK April inflation numbers were much less bad than reported. Continue reading
Why is the UK an employment outlier?
UK monetary trends have been arguing for faster MPC easing. Labour market news is now reinforcing the message. Continue reading
Inflation leading indicators still benign
Three indicators that signalled the 2021-22 global inflation spike and reversal continue to suggest a favourable outlook. Continue reading