World trade reviving from 2012 weakness

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Posted on Thursday, August 29, 2013 at 11:23AM by

Simon Ward |

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Business surveys indicate a pick-up in world trade, consistent with the forecast here of solid global economic expansion through late 2013.

The chart shows two-quarter growth in OECD export plus import volumes together with trade-related responses in the US ISM and German Ifo manufacturing surveys. The surveys appear to be a coincident indicator of trade volumes but are useful because they are published with a much shorter delay. The suggestion is that volume growth has returned to a normal level by historical standards following weakness in late 2012 / early 2013.

Stronger developed-world import demand should support growth in emerging economies near term, helping to offset the negative impact of recent tighter financial market conditions.

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