World trade reviving from 2012 weakness
Thursday, August 29, 2013 at 11:23AM
Simon Ward

Business surveys indicate a pick-up in world trade, consistent with the forecast here of solid global economic expansion through late 2013.

The chart shows two-quarter growth in OECD export plus import volumes together with trade-related responses in the US ISM and German Ifo manufacturing surveys. The surveys appear to be a coincident indicator of trade volumes but are useful because they are published with a much shorter delay. The suggestion is that volume growth has returned to a normal level by historical standards following weakness in late 2012 / early 2013.

Stronger developed-world import demand should support growth in emerging economies near term, helping to offset the negative impact of recent tighter financial market conditions.

 

Article originally appeared on Money Moves Markets (https://moneymovesmarkets.com/).
See website for complete article licensing information.