German trucking activity suggesting stronger economy

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Posted on Friday, November 20, 2015 at 01:33PM by

Simon Ward |

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The "toll index" produced by the IZA research institute measures domestic trucking activity using data from the system that levies road tolls. Unsurprisingly, it is usually a good coincident indicator of industrial activity. The chart compares year-on-year percentage changes of industrial output and aggregate kilometres driven, using monthly data unadjusted for seasonals. The toll index has diverged positively from industrial output in recent months and rose sharply further in October (October output will be released on 7 December). Trucking activity has presumably been boosted by a need to transport supplies to incoming refugees but this should still signal a stronger economy, to the extent that the supplies are sourced domestically.

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