Chinese industrial pick-up confirmed; money numbers mixed

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Posted on Wednesday, August 13, 2014 at 09:50AM by

Simon Ward |

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Chinese economic momentum has strengthened as predicted by monetary trends and business surveys. Six-month industrial output growth rose to 4.4% in July, or 9.1% annualised, the highest since December. A further increase is likely, based on new orders readings in the latest manufacturing purchasing managers’ surveys – see first chart.

July monetary statistics, meanwhile, were mixed, with six-month real M2 growth falling back from a 20-month peak but the narrow M1 measure gaining pace – second chart. The M2 slowdown, if confirmed, would suggest a loss of economic momentum at the start of 2015. A positive cyclical view remains warranted for now.

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