Global production lifting as trade surges
Simon Ward
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A post last week drew attention to a pick-up in world trade, as measured by the volume index compiled by the Netherlands CPB research institute. The CPB yesterday reported a strong 1.9% monthly rise in its index in September. Six-month growth climbed to 4.2%, or 8.5% annualised – the highest since January 2011.
The CPB notes that the September increase was broadly-based, with “import and export volume growth accelerating in most advanced and emerging regional blocks (sic), the main exception being the United States”.
Global industrial output has lagged the pick-up in trade but six-month growth in the CPB's production measure rebounded in September after a weak August, to its highest since April – see chart. The expectation here remains for output to accelerate further into early 2015, consistent with solid real money expansion during the first half of 2014 and more recent strength in leading indicators.
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