UK Q2 GDP growth now tracking at 0.7%
Simon Ward
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The official preliminary estimate that GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter, or 0.62% before rounding, was based on projected rises in industrial and construction output of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. The actual increases were slightly higher, according to data released last week – 0.65% and 1.4%. Industry and construction account for 14% and 6% of GDP. The upward revisions will add 4 basis points to the quarterly GDP rise, suggesting unrounded growth of 0.66%, or 0.7% rounded.
This change could be magnified, or indeed offset, by a revision to the current estimate that services output – accounting for 79% of GDP – grew by 0.6% last quarter. This estimate assumed that services activity contracted by 0.1% in June, after gains of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively in April and May. The services PMI activity index, by contrast, strengthened in June (and July). June services output, like the GDP revision, will be released on 23 August. Services turnover, however, feeds into the output calculation; a June update will be available on Friday.
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