China on stable growth path
Simon Ward
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Chinese industrial output is expanding respectably, nothwithstanding a negative market reaction to March data released earlier this week.
Annual growth in output fell to 8.9% last month, below market forecasts and the lowest since August 2012. The annual number, however, continues to be depressed by weakness in spring / summer 2012. Output is estimated* here to have risen by a seasonally-adjusted 5.1% in the six months to March, or 10.4% annualised.
Both new order flows and monetary trends suggest that growth will be sustained at around its recent pace into the second half – see chart and Friday’s post respectively.
*The estimate also adjusts for the timing of the Chinese New Year.
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