UK labour market statistics confirm economic resilience
Simon Ward
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Labour market statistics released today were slightly better than expected, showing employment recovering and unemployment stabilising. Resilience had been suggested by recent strength in online job postings, as measured by the Monster employment index – see previous post.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) employees measure – a three-month moving average – bottomed in October, rising 86,000 by December. This increase mainly reflects part-time jobs and the measure remains 79,000 below its level a year earlier. The Monster index, however, suggests further gains in early 2012 – see first chart.
LFS unemployment edged down by 14,000 in December though was up by 49,000 from September (three-month averages again). The LFS measure lags the claimant-count, which is still edging higher, implying that employment growth remains insufficient to offset labour force expansion – second chart.
The official vacancies series moved up further in January (three-month average), confirming the message from the more timely and leading Monster index. This reflects private sector strength, with vacancies outside public administration, education and health at a post-recession high – third chart.
The labour market remains weak but these statistics are not consistent with a “double dip”.
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