Earnings revisions suggest pause in business survey recovery

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Posted on Wednesday, January 25, 2012 at 03:13PM by

Simon Ward |

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Global business surveys continue to surprise positively, the latest examples being the German Ifo and UK CBI manufacturing polls released today and yesterday’s Eurozone flash PMIs.

A cautionary note, however, is sounded by recent earnings revisions by equity analysts. The world revisions ratio (i.e. analyst upgrades minus downgrades as a proportion of the number of estimates) correlates with G7 PMI manufacturing new orders and fell back in January – see chart.

The suggestion is that the remaining PMIs released next week will break the run of favourable survey news. US ISM manufacturing new orders, in particular, could subside from an elevated December level.

The view here is that any such setback will prove temporary, based on continued solid global real money expansion and firmer leading indicators, discussed in prior posts.

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