G7 monetary backdrop positive despite Eurozone weakness
Simon Ward
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Eurozone real narrow money, M1, contracted by 0.9% (not annualised) in the six months to June – slightly smaller than a 1.4% fall between November and May but still signalling a grim economic outlook:
The country deposit breakdown continues to show contraction in the core as well as the periphery, suggesting that the recent two-speed economy will soon give way to generalised economic weakness:
Fortunately, declining Eurozone real narrow money has been offset by strength in the US and Japan, resulting in G7 six-month growth rising further in June, reaching its highest level since 2009:
The pick-up in G7 real narrow money is the basis for the forecast here of a revival in global industrial momentum during the second half, suggesting imminent stabilisation / improvement in manufacturing purchasing managers’ surveys. Equity analysts’ earnings revisions correlate with G7 PMI new orders and were slightly less negative in July, consistent with the story:
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