UK manufacturing not constrained by credit supply, according to CBI
Simon Ward
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Business activity of smaller manufacturing firms is not being constrained by insufficient credit, according to the July CBI SME trends survey. The accompanying press release states that: "Just 4% of firms cite credit or finance constraints as likely to limit export orders, compared with 12% in the previous quarter. This is now in line with the long-run average. Furthermore, 5% of firms say credit or finance are factors likely to act as a brake on output, also in line with the historic mean."
The SME survey covers firms with fewer than 500 employees. The CBI's survey of larger manufacturers in July, released a fortnight ago, also reported a normalisation of numbers citing credit availability as a constraint on output and exports – see chart.
By contrast, the last Bank of England agents' survey stated that, while bank credit availability had improved, "conditions remained significantly tighter than those prevailing prior to the financial crisis." Possible reasons for the discrepancy are 1) the CBI surveys are more up-to-date, 2) the Bank's survey includes non-manufacturers, which may be experiencing greater problems and 3) the CBI improvement may reflect stronger internal cash-flow generation that has reduced the demand for external finance – credit is probably still difficult to obtain for those firms that need it most.
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