An ICM poll published over the weekend reported a rise in the Conservative lead over Labour to nine percentage points from seven points in mid February, against the recent trend. This has not been confirmed by other pollsters – BPIX reported a further narrowing to just two points – but is consistent with the prediction of the economic polling model discussed in prior posts, beginning in December.

In this model, the governing party’s poll position relative to the main opposition depends positively on wage and house price growth and negatively on inflation, unemployment and interest rate changes. The model predicted a big narrowing of the poll gap in late 2009 and early 2010 but has been suggesting that the Conservatives would pull ahead again into the spring, mainly reflecting the negative impact of higher inflation on Labour’s popularity. A caveat, however, was that voters might blame the Bank of England rather than the government for faster price rises.

The approach, of course, can be criticised as reductionist and the model’s historical fit is far from perfect. It will, however, be interesting to monitor poll developments against its forecast of a widening of the Conservative / Labour lead to 11-12 percentage points in May (based on a rise in retail price inflation to 4.5% by March and stability of the other inputs).

If the model is to be believed, a Conservative majority is likely and Labour will rue not calling an early March election.