UK non-oil recession less severe than early 1980s
Simon Ward
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The further upward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth to 0.4% from an originally-reported 0.1% brings the official series into line with earlier expectations. The initial 0.1% estimate, released in late January, probably influenced the MPC members who considered expanding gilt-buying at the February meeting.
The revised figures also confirm that the fall in non-North Sea output in the recent recession was smaller than during the 1979-81 contraction. Gross value added (GVA) excluding oil and gas declined by 5.8% between the first quarter of 2008 and third quarter of 2009 versus a 6.4% drop between the second quarter of 1979 and first quarter of 1981 – see chart.
On top of the fourth-quarter upgrade, the fall in GVA excluding oil and gas in the third quarter was lowered from 0.2% to 0.1% (0.08% to two decimal places). Further revisions may show that the non-oil economy bottomed in the second rather than third quarter, as suggested by business surveys and labour market evidence.
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