Labour's window of opportunity: update
Simon Ward
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The latest ICM / Guardian poll shows the Conservative / Labour lead down to 7 percentage points from 11 points a month ago. This is similar to other recent polls by YouGov and ComRes – see ukpollingreport.
The ICM result is close to a 5 point prediction from the economic polling model discussed in a prior post. In this model, the popularity of the governing party relative to the main opposition depends positively on wage growth and house prices and negatively on retail price inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Labour's catch-up, however, could be about to end. Assuming a further rise in inflation to 4.5% in the spring and stability of the other explanatory variables, the model predicts a rise in the Conservative lead to 11 points by May. Labour's hope must be that voters blame the Bank of England rather than the government for the inflation pick-up.
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